The French real estate market is going through a unique phase. After three years of decline, transactions in the existing market picked up again in 2025, while new housing continues to fall. This divergence is reshaping buying, investing, and even selling strategies for the coming years.
Existing and New: Two Markets No Longer Telling the Same Story
Talking about the “real estate market” as a homogeneous block no longer reflects the reality of 2026. The existing segment has regained some dynamism, driven by adjusted prices and gradually stabilized credit conditions.
The new market, on the other hand, remains in deep trouble. Approvals for collective housing are declining, and new construction is hindered by structural constraints, not just by the cost of credit. The zero net land take (ZNT), local resistance to densification, and rising construction costs create a difficult barrier for developers.
Closely following the real estate universe with Trend Immo allows one to grasp these disparities between segments, which directly influence the relevance of a buying or investment project.
This gap between existing and new has a direct consequence on prices. In the existing market, negotiation is becoming possible again in many medium-sized cities. In the new market, prices remain high despite declining volumes, as developers pass on their production costs.
Rental Investment in New: A Changing Buyer Profile
In the second quarter of 2026, according to the Federation of Real Estate Developers, sales to investors increased while homeownership declined. This shift deserves attention.
Households buying to live are retreating in the face of still high prices and less favorable borrowing conditions than before 2022. In contrast, investors, often already homeowners, are benefiting from rental yields that remain stable in certain tight areas.
This dynamic raises a fundamental question: is new housing becoming a product reserved for investors? The available data does not allow for a conclusion on a lasting trend, but the signal is clear over the last few quarters.
What This Implies for a Buying Project
A first-time buyer targeting new properties faces competition different from that of a few years ago. The programs coming to market are increasingly targeting investors, with smaller sizes and locations oriented towards rental profitability rather than family comfort.
Those seeking a primary residence may sometimes benefit from turning to the existing market with renovation needs, where negotiation margins and energy renovation aids can offset the thermal performance gap.
Housing Expenses in France: A Rise That Affects Choices
The 2025 housing account report, published by the SDES in September 2026, reveals that housing expenses continue to rise while real estate investment declines. The French are spending more on housing but building less.
This situation creates a scissors effect:
- Rents are rising in areas where the supply of new housing is drying up, increasing pressure on tenants
- Owner-occupiers are seeing their costs rise (energy, co-ownership, compliance), which reduces the perceived advantage of ownership
- Local authorities, constrained by the ZNT, struggle to open new buildable land, fueling land scarcity
For a buyer or investor, this mechanism means that the choice of location becomes even more crucial than before. A property located in a municipality where construction is blocked will see its value better protected, but will also be more expensive to purchase.
Regulation and ZNT: The Rules of the Game Redefining the Local Market
The zero net land take is not just an administrative acronym. It is concretely changing the map of areas where construction is possible, and consequently the valuation of existing properties.
In rural and peri-urban municipalities, local resistance to densification is blocking many projects. Elected officials hesitate to authorize collective buildings in residential areas, which mechanically limits new supply.
Consequences for Current Owners
A house located in a municipality that refuses densification may paradoxically increase in value, as local supply freezes. Field reports vary on this point: some local markets see prices stagnate despite scarcity, because demand is shifting towards municipalities better served by transportation.
For an investor, analyzing the local urban planning plan (PLU) of a target municipality before any purchase becomes as important as studying rental yield. A restrictive PLU may mean a future capital gain, but also a risk of rental vacancy if the municipality loses attractiveness.
Individual Houses: A Segment That Resists Despite the Context
While new collective housing is declining sharply, individual houses show relative resilience. This segment benefits from structural demand, fueled by families seeking space, and a construction model less dependent on large land programs.
This resilience does not mean that everything is fine. Construction costs remain high, and the time to obtain permits has lengthened in some regions. However, the individual house remains the most sought-after type of property by accessing households, which supports prices in areas where land remains accessible.
- Buildable land is becoming scarcer due to the ZNT, pushing land prices up in peri-urban rings
- Builders are adapting their ranges with more compact sizes to contain the overall budget
- The renovation of old houses is gaining ground as an alternative to new construction
The French real estate market in 2026 cannot be summarized by a single trend. The existing market is regaining strength while the new market sinks, investors are gradually replacing buyers in new programs, and regulatory constraints are reshaping the geography of construction. Each buying or investment project now requires a local reading, municipality by municipality, of the relationship between supply, demand, and urban planning rules.
